The Dallas Fed’s latest survey highlights a disconnect between rising production and the volatile geopolitical landscape. While the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark fluctuated significantly due to Middle Eastern supply disruptions, firms in the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, and Haynesville regions pressed ahead with increased activity. Capital spending trends from the second quarter carried into the third, signaling a sector that is currently prioritizing volume over long-term price certainty.

Individual forecasts for WTI prices at the end of 2026 vary wildly, spanning from $70 to $126 per barrel, with an average expectation of $88. This uncertainty is compounded by shifting inventory levels. While commercial crude stocks rose by 900,000 barrels to hit 427.3 million, distillate inventories tightened, dropping by 2.3 million barrels to sit 14% below the five-year average. Executives remain cautious, noting that the current global conflict makes any reliable prediction for 2027 nearly impossible.