The market shift follows reports indicating that exports through the Strait of Hormuz have reached nearly 98% of pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that regional output remains robust, with Saudi Arabia’s September exports exceeding their 2025 average. This surge effectively offsets the decline in Iranian shipments, stabilizing global supply chains despite lingering geopolitical tensions.

While industry observers tracked reports from Lloyd’s List regarding tanker incidents in the Strait, these disruptions failed to move the needle on pricing. The resilience of export channels, bolstered by ship-to-ship transfers and rerouted logistics, suggests that the market is prioritizing volume over security premiums. Even as insurance costs for the region rise, the sheer scale of the current outflow has successfully dampened the volatility that drove prices above $103 earlier this week.