The pivot follows a brief surge in August, when exports reached 6.01 million tons, a 12.7% increase compared to the previous year. However, authorities blocked all non-essential shipments ahead of the Golden Week holiday, limiting outflows strictly to Hong Kong and Macau. Whether these restrictions persist after October 7 remains unconfirmed, leaving international buyers in a state of uncertainty.

Analysts point to a critical depletion of reserves, with domestic gasoline and diesel inventories hitting seven-year lows. According to GL Consulting, the combination of constrained supply and strengthening internal demand forces refiners to pivot entirely toward the domestic market. If this prioritization remains official government policy, the global fuel market faces a significant supply contraction just as regional demand struggles to find stability.