The volatility reflects a market trapped between improved physical supply and intensifying regional instability. Earlier in the week, traders pushed prices as low as $88.58, betting that the resumption of tanker loadings at Yanbu and the stabilization of the East-West Pipeline would mitigate the threat to global energy flows. Goldman Sachs reported that Gulf exports rebounded to 23.3 million barrels per day, signaling a return to near-average levels.

However, this supply optimism collided with severe bottlenecks in refined products. With Russia restricting diesel exports and China pulling refined-product cargoes from global markets, the underlying fuel supply remains fragile. The arrival of additional U.S. naval power in the region suggests that the market’s escalation premium is far from fading, effectively capping the impact of the Saudi export recovery on overall WTI pricing.