The world began this crisis with approximately 10 billion barrels in stock, but consistent drawdowns have pushed commercial inventories below 6 billion barrels. Much of this remaining volume is inaccessible for immediate market needs. Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Nasser emphasized that the energy system is currently operating under severe strain, with few alternatives available to offset potential supply shocks.

Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure has provided a critical buffer; Nasser noted that Brent prices could have surged to $200 per barrel without the East-West pipeline, which allows the kingdom to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. While Aramco has restored this route to 80% capacity following recent attacks, replenishing global stocks will likely take two years even after shipping lanes fully normalize. Recent G7 pledges to release emergency diesel and oil reserves offer only a short-term reprieve for the winter months rather than a structural fix for long-term supply deficits. In response, Aramco is actively exploring new export routes and expanded overseas storage to mitigate future dependence on fragile maritime corridors.