West Texas Intermediate rose 2.10% to $93.78, reflecting investor anxiety as renewed tanker strikes near Oman threaten the fragile recovery of Gulf oil exports. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate these geopolitical tensions are currently adding a $20 premium to every barrel, pushing their December forecast for Brent to $90.

The rally persists even as OPEC sharply revises its outlook, now projecting global demand growth of only 400,000 barrels per day for 2026—a drastic drop from the 1.4 million barrels per day anticipated earlier this year. While the International Energy Agency remains more pessimistic, predicting a 2.5-million-barrel decline in consumption, market focus remains fixed on the Gulf. Efforts by Shell, Chevron, and BP to restore production in the Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Isaias provide little relief against the backdrop of broken ceasefires. Despite President Donald Trump’s announcement of additional Russian diesel supplies and a proposed energy truce between Moscow and Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported immediate violations, leaving the market tethered to the volatile reality of regional conflict.