The surge follows a broader expansion of high-risk maritime zones by London’s insurance market, which now covers the entire Black Sea basin. While voyages within territorial waters remain exempt, the threat has moved closer to Bulgarian infrastructure. On October 6, drone strikes sank the Togo-flagged Alfa Watan and damaged the Palau-flagged Able within the country's exclusive economic zone, leaving ten crew members missing and sparking international calls for an investigation.

Even before these strikes, logistics costs were climbing sharply. Benchmark tanker earnings on the route from Novorossiysk to Augusta reached record highs of $440,948 per day in August, marking a 140% increase since early July. Despite the instability, the Burgas refinery maintains its supply chain, with deliveries secured through December. Simeonov argues that the refinery must be permitted to export surplus diesel to avoid storage bottlenecks, warning that domestic sales caps could inadvertently stifle the production of gasoline and aviation fuel.