The market is currently prioritizing immediate geopolitical threats over the uncertain arrival of extra Russian fuel volumes. While Russia has committed to supplying 300,000 metric tons of diesel to global markets, analysts at Price Futures Group note that headlines regarding Saudi assets and the Strait of Hormuz continue to dictate short-term price action. This sentiment is echoed by Goldman Sachs, which recently lifted its December Brent forecast to $90 a barrel, estimating that ongoing tensions are adding a premium of more than $20 to the price of each barrel.

Operational challenges persist beyond the battlefield. Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport recently suffered an attack claimed by Houthi militants that resulted in significant casualties, further spooking investors. Simultaneously, shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are languishing at 38% below prewar levels. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has warned that global supply pressures will only intensify until the waterway fully reopens. Compounding these issues, U.S. Gulf offshore production is still recovering from Hurricane Isaias, with over 600,000 barrels of daily capacity remaining offline as of Monday afternoon.