Much of this projected expansion stems from a deliberate effort to restock global reserves. Refiners, traders, and governments are expected to aggressively replace inventories depleted during the Iran war, where OECD commercial stocks in August sat 177.2 million barrels below the 2015-2019 average. Product inventories account for 80.4 million barrels of that deficit, setting the stage for a significant replenishment cycle.

Regional consumption patterns show a distinct shift, with OECD demand rebounding by 500,000 bpd after a 200,000 bpd contraction in 2026. Non-OECD nations will drive the bulk of the growth, adding roughly 2 million bpd. Gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel lead the recovery, with diesel demand alone expected to rise by 420,000 bpd. Supply from outside the OPEC+ Declaration of Cooperation group is projected to grow by only 600,000 bpd, leaving the alliance to cover the gap. Consequently, demand for OPEC+ crude is slated to rise by 1.8 million bpd, reaching 43.9 million bpd by 2027.