The cooling import volume arrives despite a 3% monthly increase from August, highlighting a precarious balance between robust national stockpiles and a tightening supply chain. Domestic production has faltered throughout the year, hampered by stringent safety inspections following a major mining disaster in Shanxi province last May. These regulatory hurdles have kept output trending lower, even as the approach of winter forces authorities to prioritize energy security.

International market volatility further complicates the outlook. Indonesian exports, a cornerstone of China’s supply, have slowed due to government-imposed production quotas and weather-driven logistical disruptions that have hindered barge traffic. Consequently, spot thermal coal prices in China have rallied 24% since mid-July. With the nation still dependent on coal for nearly half of its power generation, Beijing has recently urged local miners to stabilize output to prevent further price spikes ahead of the peak heating season.