While crude oil stocks are projected to nudge up to 424.2 million barrels, downstream pressures suggest a tightening in refined products. Surveyed analysts anticipate gasoline inventories will drop by 900,000 barrels to 203.8 million, alongside a sharper 1.5 million-barrel decline in distillate fuels, which includes diesel. This contraction in product availability aligns with expectations that refineries throttled back their operations.

Refinery capacity utilization is likely to have dipped by half a percentage point to 92.2%. The volatility in these estimates—ranging from a 1% decline to a 0.2% increase—underscores the difficulty in gauging near-term demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is set to resolve these conflicting projections when it publishes official inventory figures on Thursday at 12 p.m. EDT.