While the IMF sees Saudi Arabia as resilient due to recent economic diversification, the broader regional outlook remains precarious. The conflict has forced a logistical pivot, with Saudi oil exports diverted from the Red Sea to the Persian Gulf. This shift increases reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway currently plagued by heightened Iranian maritime aggression. Recent incidents, including the sinking of two vessels in the strait this past Wednesday, underscore the vulnerability of these redirected routes.

The Yemeni Houthis have signaled an intent to intensify their campaign, following a week of strikes against Aramco headquarters in Dhahran, a refinery in Riyadh, and the Saudi capital’s airport. As the Saudi-led coalition struggles to regain control over the critical Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the economic fallout is beginning to manifest in reduced production capacity and a potential deceleration in global growth. For now, the region faces a dual challenge: defending essential infrastructure while attempting to maintain the flow of energy exports through increasingly contested waters.