November West Texas Intermediate climbed $2.38 to reach $97.47/bbl, while the December contract added $2.05 to settle at $95.95/bbl. Brent crude saw more modest gains, with December contracts rising 21cts to $106.27/bbl. Conversely, fuel markets faltered; November ULSD dropped 7.55cts to $4.8519/gal, and RBOB gasoline slid 5.52cts to $3.2043/gal.

Ritterbusch & Associates noted that the Brent-WTI spread has stretched to nearly $14/bbl, driven by elevated freight costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts view this gap as unsustainable, projecting a potential contraction toward $8/bbl. Despite these financial pressures, physical supply is rebounding. International Energy Agency data shows Gulf crude shipments surged by 4.4 million b/d in September, reaching 13.9 million b/d. While this marks a return to over 75% of prewar capacity, the IEA warns that any renewed strikes on energy infrastructure could derail the recovery.

Member nations are accelerating emergency stock releases to stabilize supply. Having already deployed 330 million bbl, countries committed to expediting the remaining 100 million bbl, a portion of which includes 20 million bbl of diesel.