The current supply-demand imbalance tightened across international markets throughout the last quarter. Oplinger pointed to a combination of planned curtailments and stalled expansion projects as the primary drivers behind the price increase. While the company maintains a constructive outlook on pricing, the path forward remains dependent on the speed of regional production shifts.

Counterbalancing these shortages is a projected rise in demand from Middle Eastern production facilities and continued smelter growth in Indonesia. Although these regions are expected to ramp up output, Alcoa views the broader market environment as structurally tighter for the foreseeable future, specifically through 2027.