Daily oil flows through the critical maritime chokepoint have cratered, falling to 11.62 million barrels from a baseline of 17.15 million, according to Kpler data. Analysts at ING suggest the market is currently pricing in a hefty risk premium, noting that only a formal diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran could fully stabilize the volatile supply chain.

Attempts to dampen the price surge have met skepticism. The IEA’s plan to release the final 100 million barrels from its 2026 emergency stockpile has failed to move the needle, as have suggestions from President Trump to ease sanctions on the shadow tanker fleet. Industry experts point out that these vessels are already active, and persistent EU insurance restrictions continue to complicate their integration into the global market. With US inventories also posting a significant draw of 8.56 million barrels, traders remain focused on the immediate physical security of Persian Gulf transit routes.