Brent crude for December settled at $109.55 a barrel, down 0.3%, while West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.5% to $98.54. Despite the legislative relief, analysts remain skeptical that the move will fundamentally alter the supply-demand imbalance. The waiver, signed Friday, aims to ease restrictions on Russian energy trade, but market experts warn the volumes involved are insufficient to offset global shortfalls, particularly as Russian refining capacity remains compromised by recent Ukrainian drone strikes.

Downside potential remains limited by mounting instability in the Middle East. Shipping risks have escalated following attacks on tankers near Saudi Arabia and a tugboat off the United Arab Emirates. Data from Kpler indicates that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are currently 41% below prewar levels. With Morgan Stanley projecting a fourth-quarter Brent average of $105 a barrel, the market is bracing for continued tightness. As Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group noted, the current influx of barrels is minor compared to the broader structural deficits and historically low U.S. distillate inventories.