Traders are weighing the impact of restored crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz against the precarious cost of maritime insurance and transit security in the region. While export volumes have returned to prewar levels, the financial sustainability of shipping through these contested waters remains a point of contention for energy analysts.

Market sentiment shifted markedly for refined products, with diesel futures sliding 3.3%—the sharpest decline for the fuel since September. This divergence highlights a volatile pricing environment where crude remains buoyed by long-term supply fears even as specific product markets begin to cool. Meanwhile, the prospect of renewed negotiations between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the Ukraine War introduces a new variable that may eventually pressure the current price floor if diplomatic breakthroughs materialize.