The volatility was triggered by headlines regarding potential mediation efforts between Iran and Pakistan, which briefly stripped the risk premium from energy prices. Traders initially abandoned long positions as the prospect of de-escalation emerged, driving the sharpest sell-off of the week. However, the momentum failed to hold once it became clear that no direct dialogue with Washington was on the table. Iran maintained its rigid stance against negotiations while facing ongoing economic blockades, prompting the market to reverse its course and climb back toward the $100 threshold.

This cycle reveals a market hypersensitive to diplomatic signals but increasingly skeptical of their substance. Investors are eager to exit positions on the mere mention of peace, yet they remain unwilling to commit to a sustained downtrend without concrete proof of a resolution. Until a formal diplomatic process replaces these tentative mediation headlines, the risk premium remains firmly embedded in the price of crude, ensuring that any dip prompted by rumors will likely be met with aggressive buying.