The increase follows a period of constrained output during the spring and early summer, when Gulf producers struggled to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. To circumvent these disruptions, Saudi Arabia ramped up ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman and relied heavily on the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Even a two-week suspension of the East-West pipeline following the September 10 attacks failed to derail the production climb, as the Kingdom pivoted to new logistical workarounds.

Rising production levels, paired with Brent Crude settling at $103.5 per barrel by late September, have provided a vital boost to oil revenues. Broader economic signals are also showing signs of life, with consumer spending climbing 6.4% in August and the Purchasing Managers’ Index hitting its strongest level since February. However, the recovery remains uneven; government data indicates that merchandise exports dropped 11.5% in August, highlighting the lingering impact of the second-quarter crisis that saw real GDP contract by 4.7% year-over-year.