President Trump signaled that Washington has no immediate plans for military action, telling the Financial Times the administration is achieving its goals through other means. Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment, confirming progress in back-channel talks. Tehran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, provided the U.S. lifts oil sanctions and releases frozen assets. These signals have largely neutralized the impact of bellicose rhetoric, including claims from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard that four tankers were destroyed by mines near the strait.

Domestic political shifts are also tempering expectations for conflict. Following the Democratic victory in Tuesday’s midterms, analysts suggest the incoming legislature may restrict funding for military operations. While the new Congress does not take office until January 3, the current administration faces a narrow window for action. Market participants are now pivoting toward technical factors, with profit-taking following October’s rally and a growing global surplus—estimated by JPMorgan at 1.4 million barrels per day—driving the sell-off. Even a reported 5.27 million-barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories, which would typically boost prices, failed to halt the downward momentum as traders prioritize signs of shifting supply-demand fundamentals over regional instability.