The front-month Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract was down 2.2% at 9 a.m. in Amsterdam, trading at $96.87 (€86.14) per megawatt-hour. That was its lowest level in two weeks, after the European benchmark topped €100 last week for the first time since 2022. It had reached more than €101.82 ($114) per MWh at the end of last week, a four-year high.

Europe remains exposed to supply risks ahead of winter. LNG flows from Qatar are barely a trickle, and QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on deliveries until at least the end of December 2026. The Democrats’ resounding midterm victory, along with Vice President JD Vance’s admission that the Iran war contributed to Republicans’ defeat, has raised hopes that Trump may opt for diplomacy. Oil prices have also reflected that optimism.

“Where we come out the other side of winter is largely dependent on how much of a recovery we see in Persian Gulf LNG flows this winter, if any,” ING commodities analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note on Thursday. They added that weather would matter more than usual this winter because the market is tighter.