Ten- and 30-year Treasury yields touched eight-week lows before recovering slightly, though both remained lower on the day, according to Tradeweb. The 10-year yield last traded at 4.831% and the 30-year at 5.244%. The two-year yield, which fell to a two-month low on Wednesday, was last at 4.506%. Shari Hensrud, chief investment officer at MissionSquare, said a Democratic-controlled Congress would act as a stronger brake on further fiscal expansion, reducing some upside risk to long-term yields.
Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday as investors considered whether the Democrats’ victory could accelerate efforts to end the Iran war. Brent crude for January delivery recovered some ground Thursday but remained below $100 a barrel, last trading at $97.
The decline in yields came despite signs of resilience in the U.S. economy. Weekly jobless claims fell as layoffs remained subdued, and third-quarter nonfarm productivity rose at a 3.6% pace, more than expected. Labor costs fell 0.7%. A Wall Street Journal consensus forecast expects Friday’s October payrolls report to show job creation increasing and unemployment holding at 4.2%.
German yields also reached recent lows: the 10-year Bund yield fell to 3.252%, its lowest since late August, while the 30-year yield eased to 3.632%, a level not seen since mid-August. In the U.K., the 10-year gilt yield fell to its lowest in more than two months and the 30-year yield to a four-month low, ahead of the Bank of England’s interest-rate decision. Markets expect a 25-basis-point increase, but have reduced expectations for rate rises over the coming year as oil prices fall. “Relief after the blue wave is lifting all boats,” Commerzbank rates strategist Rainer Guntermann said.
Hensrud said political gridlock could support longer-dated Treasurys, while shorter maturities remain more sensitive to U.S. interest-rate expectations, inflation and labor-market conditions. Large deficits remain, and the dollar’s future path, regulatory risks in artificial intelligence and the Iran conflict are also key factors, said Michael Titz, head of investment office at Bankhaus Herzogpark.
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