Diamondback Energy, the largest producer focused exclusively on the Permian, said it does not expect a material increase in drilling next year. Chief Executive Kaes Van't Hof told analysts the company must prepare for prices to fall, adding that an exploration and production company should not operate as a “perma bull.” He said Diamondback would normally issue its 2027 plan in February and sees no need to publish it earlier while uncertainty persists.

The company generated $2.1 billion in free cash flow in the third quarter, raised its 2026 dividend and slightly increased its production outlook for this year. Van't Hof said the base dividend has grown more than ninefold since it began at $0.50 per share in 2018. Diamondback has also used excess cash to repurchase bonds and shares and reduce debt, rather than commit to a substantial production push.

The restraint extends across the industry. ExxonMobil, which has a large Permian position, has said it is focused less on hitting volume targets than on efficient execution, capital deployment and applying technology to maximize project value. Wood Mackenzie’s Nathan Nemeth said smaller and privately held operators are more likely to respond to higher prices, while larger producers remain wary of committing to output growth in a volatile market. Production is rising with a lag from the price increase eight months ago, the consultancy said.

U.S. oil output has edged up this year, but not enough to offset major supply disruptions in the Middle East. The Hormuz crisis has pushed up futures and freight rates, increasing the physical cost of moving crude to refineries. Nemeth said a single social-media post could send oil prices down by $20 a barrel. Executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey in September also described budgeting as difficult amid market volatility.