Imports from Iraq dropped sharply from more than 10 million barrels in January. They later rose to 1.486 million barrels in July and 1.387 million in August, but the four-week average showed six consecutive weeks with no Iraqi oil imports during July and August.

Iraq has limited alternatives to the strait. A pipeline running north through Kurdistan can carry about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to Turkey, while before the war the country exported more than 3 million bpd through Hormuz.

Crude shipments have begun to recover, though not necessarily to the United States. Iraq has increased exports through the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan to 500,000 bpd, trucking Basrah crude to the northern pipeline system.

Production from Iraq’s southern oil fields fell by 70% in the early weeks of the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, averaging 1.3 million bpd against 4.3 million bpd before the war. Output has since recovered, with more oil moving through Ceyhan and through the Strait of Hormuz, where Gulf producers have used shuttle-shipping and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.