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Barrick keeps 2026 guidance after earnings miss

Barrick Mining’s third-quarter adjusted earnings rose 41% from a year earlier, but came in below analysts’ expectations as higher operating costs squeezed profitability. The company reported stronger gold output and prices, and kept its full-year production and cost guidance unchanged.

Adjusted net earnings were $1.35 billion, or $0.82 per share, against analysts’ average estimate of $0.86 per share. Revenue climbed 22% year over year to $5.07 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose 22% to $2.47 billion. Operating cash flow was $2.49 billion; consolidated free cash flow fell 21% from a year earlier to $1.17 billion.

Gold production reached 816,000 attributable ounces, up 3% from the second quarter and 6% from the same period last year, excluding divested operations. Copper production was 50,000 tonnes. Higher costs tempered the benefit of stronger prices: gold all-in sustaining costs rose 24% year over year to $1,911 per ounce, and cash costs reached $1,386 per ounce. Barrick’s average realized gold price increased 23% to $4,243 per ounce from $3,457.

North American operations produced 497,000 ounces, including 400,000 from Nevada Gold Mines. Barrick said Cortez benefited from the Goldrush ramp-up, while Carlin’s Gold Quarry roaster recorded its highest quarterly throughput. International production was 319,000 ounces, up 6% from the prior quarter, with stronger output at Loulo-Gounkoto and Kibali. Extreme weather affected production at Veladero and Porgera.

Barrick retained its annual gold production forecast of 2.90 million to 3.25 million ounces and AISC range of $1,760 to $1,950 per ounce. Management expects fourth-quarter production to be slightly higher than in the third. CEO Mark Hill said the company had delivered consistently for a full year and cited progress on safety, operational plans, Nevada Gold Mines, growth projects and shareholder returns.

Jefferies said production topped its estimate of 807,000 ounces and consensus of about 811,000, but free cash flow missed its $1.22 billion forecast and the $1.29 billion consensus. Copper AISC reached $4.52 per pound, above the bank’s $3.66 estimate. Jefferies maintained its buy rating and $52 price target, which it said implied about 28% upside from the previous closing price.

The bank identified a planned IPO of Barrick’s North American gold assets as a potential catalyst; the company is targeting the fourth quarter of 2026 or early 2027. The Lumwana copper expansion in Zambia remains on schedule and within its approximately $2 billion budget, while the Reko Diq project in Pakistan is under review amid concerns over rising development costs and possible delays. Barrick returned $1.04 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks and ended September with about $909 million in net cash.

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