Turkey wants the pledge included in the conference’s final agreement, but support remains uncertain. Its measure tracks the share of final energy demand supplied by electricity; it does not specify the source of that power or ensure that total fossil-fuel consumption falls.

The distinction is salient as climate negotiators meet in Antalya to debate the pace of the shift away from oil, gas and coal. Coal provided approximately one-third of Turkey’s electricity last year and more than 40% of Australia’s. Australia is chairing the negotiations.

Electrifying transport, heating and industrial processes can reduce direct fossil-fuel use and improve energy efficiency, but the emissions benefit depends partly on how the additional electricity is generated. Portugal has called for the proposed target to be explicitly linked to clean electricity. On Tuesday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged governments to set clear timelines for moving away from fossil fuels.

The debate also comes as Turkey pursues domestic oil production. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Monday the discovery of two oilfields in the Gabar region, estimated to contain 135 million barrels of oil in place. Turkey expects output there to exceed 100,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2027, up from approximately 84,000 barrels per day currently. The estimate of oil in place does not show how much can ultimately be recovered commercially.

The pledge would provide a measurable electrification target, but its effect on fossil-fuel consumption will depend on how countries meet it. COP31’s challenge is to reconcile greater electricity use and energy security with emissions reductions and affordable energy.