Global lithium demand has climbed more than 400 percent this decade, topping 1.5 million metric tons a year. It could reach about 4 million tons by 2035, according to projections cited in the source article. The International Energy Agency’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 expects no other mineral to see greater demand growth.

The United States produces just over 1 percent of the world’s lithium, much of it from Albemarle’s Silver Peak mine in Nevada. China, by contrast, controls an estimated 72 percent of the global lithium-ion market, and Chinese companies hold a quarter of the world’s lithium mining capacity. More than 80 percent of battery cells were made in China in 2024. Wood Mackenzie projects Beijing will control 39 percent of global lithium production by 2030.

Standard Lithium CEO David Park called the Smackover “a geologic freak” because of its high lithium concentrations. He told Fortune that the company’s land could support more than 150,000 tons of annual production. Standard Lithium is expected to authorize its South West Arkansas Project late this year and begin work on an initial 22,500-ton phase in the first quarter of next year. LG Energy Solution agreed in late August to buy 8,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate a year from Smackover Lithium starting in 2029.

Texas-based EnergyX opened a 250-ton pilot plant earlier this year and aims to start construction on its 15,000-ton Project Lonestar commercial facility by the end of 2027. ExxonMobil, which entered the formation three years ago, holds more than 400,000 net acres and plans a pilot project in 2027. Chevron bought 125,000 acres last year.

The projects face uncertain economics. Lithium spot prices have been volatile, and new Smackover operations would need to compete in established markets. BMO Capital Markets critical minerals analyst Max Yerrill told Fortune that the formation’s lithium potential is substantial but its commercial viability remains unproven. He said the investments should be assessed as 25-year projects, not decisions based on one year.