Both benchmarks remained well above their February levels, before the war began, but were sharply below peaks reached in mid-October. Signals about the conflict’s trajectory remain mixed: the risk of a major escalation appears moderate, while Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz continue and prospects for a peace deal remain remote.

President Donald Trump said this week, “We don’t need a deal with Iran,” adding, “Those days have long since passed. We’ve got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we’ve got their Strait!” Iran has shown no sign of backing away from the conditions it has set for a deal. Iranian sources reported that four vessels were attacked after failing to follow Iran’s instructions for crossing Hormuz.

In Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s Houthis continued attacks on energy infrastructure. The latest targets included a pumping station on the East-West pipeline and a facility in the port city of Yanbu. Saudi Arabia said its crude production rose to 10.56 million barrels a day last month, essentially returning to its pre-war level. Aramco’s chief executive said the company plans to increase production further in the remaining months of the year.