January Brent settled Friday at $95.84 a barrel, up two cents on the day. December West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.2% to $88.56. Both contracts posted a 2.5% weekly decline.

The IEA said global supply rose by 2.3 million barrels a day in October to 105.4 million barrels a day. It lifted its fourth-quarter supply estimate by 3.3 million barrels a day, saying recovering Middle Eastern exports are expected to outpace demand. Gulf exports excluding Oman reached 18.4 million barrels a day, about 26% below prewar levels.

Observed global oil inventories increased by 52 million barrels in October, the first monthly rise since June, but remained 462 million barrels below their level at the start of the war. The agency expects demand to fall by 2.7 million barrels a day this year and rebound by 2 million barrels a day in 2027. It warned that further attacks on shipping could impede the recovery in oil flows.

Prices rebounded Thursday after President Trump said Washington no longer needed an agreement with Iran, casting doubt on negotiations. He also wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. had secured control of the Strait of Hormuz. Baringa partner and energy analyst Ellen Fraser said the recent price decline had been driven by sentiment and warned that the Northern Hemisphere faced a tight winter, with prices still well above prewar levels.

ING analysts said recovering production had eased immediate supply concerns, but alternative export routes remained vulnerable to disruption. They identified the return of normal traffic through Hormuz as a key price factor. CMS Prime Chief Operating Officer Terri-Leigh Bennett said markets may be anticipating diplomatic progress before extra supplies arrive, adding that negotiations would not immediately repair damaged infrastructure, normalize shipping routes or ensure uninterrupted production.

The Bahrain-based Joint Maritime Information Center reported 181 maritime security incidents since March 1, including four since its previous report on Sunday. Preliminary Kpler data showed confirmed Hormuz transits averaging 4.06 million barrels a day in the latest weekly figures available Wednesday, compared with 17.1 million before the conflict.