The strait, which links the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea, has faced severe restrictions and a functional blockade since late February 2026. The limits followed U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran’s response. Before the restrictions, the waterway carried about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas. In 2025, around 20 million barrels of oil and products passed through it each day, representing almost $600 billion in annual energy trade, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The New York Times analysis, described as conservative, compared the performance of more than 50 large U.S. producers and refiners from April through September with the same period last year, when their combined earnings were below $47 billion. U.S. refiners have been among the biggest beneficiaries as damaged facilities in the Middle East and Russia add pressure to global refining capacity. U.S. firms also face less exposure to shipping costs because much of the oil they process moves by pipeline.

Geoffrey Miller, a geopolitical analyst and editor of the Gulf States Insights newsletter, said the war “created a risk premium that U.S.-based operators are structurally well placed to monetise.” Gulf producers, he said, were “hit hard by both higher costs and risks, along with physical damage,” making it harder for them to gain from rising prices. Exxon Mobil’s third-quarter profit more than doubled, while Chevron’s nearly tripled, with both reporting results in October.

The gains have not matched those of 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: oil averaged $100 a barrel that year, compared with around $90 from April to September this year. U.S. consumers, meanwhile, have paid more for fuel; estimates put their additional spending on gasoline and diesel since the war began at $147 billion, or more than $1,100 per household. The gap between company profits and household costs has fueled debate over who benefits from the conflict. European majors have also reported stronger results: Shell earned $12.06 billion in the third quarter, roughly twice its year-earlier result, while TotalEnergies’ profit more than doubled from 2025 to $8.26 billion.