Commercial crude stocks are anticipated to rise by 1.1 million barrels, reaching a total of 429.9 million barrels. The forecast, based on an average of seven estimates, reflects a market adjusting to shifting refinery runs and demand patterns. While expectations varied widely—ranging from a 5.2 million barrel build to a 3 million barrel draw—the consensus points toward continued accumulation at storage hubs.

Shift in Refined Products

Conversely, the long streak of gasoline inventory growth appears to be ending. Analysts predict a drop of 700,000 barrels, which would mark the first decline in 14 weeks. Distillate fuels, including diesel, are also expected to tighten, with a projected decrease of 1.4 million barrels bringing stocks down to 123.3 million barrels. Refinery activity showed signs of a marginal uptick, with utilization rates expected to rise by 0.2 percentage points to 89.6% of total capacity.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to publish its official weekly report on Thursday at 12 p.m. EST. Market participants closely monitor these figures for signals on domestic demand and the pace of refinery operations as the industry balances production against seasonal consumption shifts during the Feb. 13 reporting period.