The mounting pressure has left roughly 67 million barrels of crude and condensate stranded within the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. While Tehran initially banked on floating storage to weather the disruption, those reserves have dwindled from 190 million barrels in late April to 147 million today. The strategy of waiting out the blockade is failing as production slows and the cost of maintaining idle inventory rises.

Simultaneously, the vital Chinese market is cooling. Independent refiners in China, facing weak profit margins and high fuel stocks, have curtailed imports to 1.1 million barrels per day—the lowest level since January 2025. This shift has forced Iranian Light crude into a discount against Brent for the first time in two months. Homayoun Falakshahi of Kpler warns that should these conditions persist for another sixty days, Iran may exhaust its capacity to supply its remaining buyers, forcing a deeper contraction in domestic production.