Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper notes that the market is increasingly vulnerable to macro headwinds as gold shifts its focus back to real yields. With inflation expectations prompting markets to anticipate a Federal Reserve rate hike, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets has climbed. This shift has already begun to impact investment demand, with exchange-traded product holdings slipping throughout May and June.

The technical picture remains precarious. Cooper highlights that approximately 270 tons of ETP holdings are currently in loss-making territory near the $4,250 an ounce mark. Should prices continue to slide toward $4,000, those underwater positions could swell to 298 tons, potentially triggering further redemptions. While the strengthening U.S. dollar adds another layer of resistance, technical support is now firmly eyed at $4,100 an ounce. Despite these immediate risks, Cooper maintains a degree of optimism for a medium-term recovery.