Analysts pointed to a 10% persistence in demand weakness as China accelerates its pivot toward alternative energy sources. This shift is mirrored in recent data from Sinopec, which recorded a notable dip in fuel sales. Goldman Sachs estimates that consumption of gasoline and related products in China plummeted by as much as 20% in April compared to the previous year, while rail and electric transport sectors gained momentum.

Supply dynamics remain equally volatile. The bank assumes Gulf oil exports will normalize by late August, provided flows through the Strait of Hormuz reach 70% of pre-war levels. However, the forecast carries significant variance. If geopolitical tensions trigger an extended closure of the Strait, prices could spike to $140 per barrel by early 2027. Conversely, an accelerated reopening combined with increased production from the United States, Guyana, Brazil, the UAE, and Venezuela could push Brent crude down to $60 per barrel as the market shifts into a surplus.