The volatility follows President Donald Trump’s decision to abort a planned military strike on Iran, citing progress toward a peace settlement. State media in Tehran suggests a draft memorandum of understanding is circulating, outlining a path that would see the U.S. lift naval blockades in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Investors are betting heavily on this outcome, fearing that a prolonged closure of the vital shipping artery would trigger a global fuel price spike and economic instability.

Despite the market optimism, the path to a final agreement remains fraught with friction. The proposed 14-point draft hinges on the U.S. suspending oil sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian assets, conditions that have yet to be fully codified. Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, noted that while the text is largely finalized, persistent shifts in American positioning continue to hamper the process. According to the Mehr News Agency, Baghaei criticized U.S. officials for raising new demands and conducting military actions even as negotiations unfold, illustrating the fragile nature of the current de-escalation effort.