The proposal targets profits that exceed a firm’s average 2025 margin by more than 20%, a threshold designed to capture gains driven by geopolitical supply shocks rather than operational efficiency. Finance Ministry projections suggest the move will generate roughly 4 billion zloty, or $1.1 billion, to offset the monthly $435 million cost of VAT and excise duty cuts. State-controlled giant Orlen is expected to absorb 60% of this tax burden.

While Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition maintains a parliamentary majority, the legislation faces a precarious path to enactment. President Karol Nawrocki, an opposition ally, holds veto power and has frequently obstructed the government’s fiscal agenda. Industry pressure forced an initial reduction of the tax rate from 75% to 60% after stakeholders warned that the original plan would have pushed the effective tax burden on some entities to nearly 94%.