Peter Aylott, director of policy at the UK Chamber of Shipping, confirmed that trade volumes will likely remain suppressed through the end of the year. While President Trump has publicly urged mariners to resume travel, the industry is waiting for the publication of the full Memorandum of Understanding. Currently, that document is only a page and a half long, leaving Vice President JD Vance to admit that significant outstanding issues persist.

For months, the closure of this vital chokepoint—which historically handled over 20 percent of global seaborne oil and gas—has crippled supply chains and sent energy and fertilizer prices surging. Many ships remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, held hostage by the dual threats of Iranian seizures and sea mines laid during the conflict. Even if the current agreement holds, insurers and operators are demanding a sustained period of stability before restoring the typical flow of 150 vessels per day. Most companies are opting to keep their fleets sidelined rather than gamble on a fragile diplomatic breakthrough.