The return of Saudi supertankers to the strait marks a tentative return to normalcy, yet insurers are hesitating to underwrite routes that still lack long-term security guarantees. While the 60-day negotiation window aims to solidify the peace, the reality on the ground remains volatile. Lebanon serves as the primary stress test for the agreement, as Israeli forces maintain a presence in a southern security zone, directly contradicting the memorandum's commitment to cease military operations on all fronts.

Tehran has signaled that continued Israeli occupation could trigger an annulment of the deal, casting doubt on the sustainability of the current lull. This regional instability is compounded by a deepening fracture within the Western alliance. Defense Secretary Hegseth recently publicly condemned several European allies for restricting U.S. access to bases and airspace during the Iran crisis. Labeling these actions shameful, Hegseth has initiated a six-month review of the American military footprint in Europe, suggesting that the geopolitical fallout of the Hormuz standoff will reach far beyond the Middle East.