The Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold the funds-rate target between 3.50% and 3.75% belied a more aggressive outlook buried in the June projections. With the 2026 median forecast rising to 3.8% and nine officials signaling potential rate hikes, investors are prioritizing real yields and incoming inflation data over geopolitical hedges. This shift leaves precious metals vulnerable, particularly as the market perceives shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz as increasingly manageable.

Energy-supply fears have receded following the interim deal for toll-free commercial passage, which saw 71 vessel crossings over the weekend. Although this remains below prewar levels, the cooling of the eight-day risk rally has hit global equities, with the Kospi tumbling 10% and S&P 500 futures down 1.5%. Traders are now looking toward the May PCE inflation report; a sticky core reading would likely cement the Fed's higher-for-longer stance, maintaining downward pressure on bullion. Conversely, a softer report could offer a reprieve if lower crude prices successfully temper real-rate expectations.