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Mexican Inflation Cools as Produce Costs Plummet

A 24% collapse in tomato prices fueled a broader retreat in Mexico’s consumer price index during the first half of June, driving the annual inflation rate to 3.55%. This sharper-than-expected decline marks a significant shift from the 3.77% level recorded during the latter half of May.

Mexican Inflation Cools as Produce Costs Plummet

Fresh fruit and vegetable costs dropped 5.24% over the two-week period, providing the primary momentum for the index’s 0.11% overall decline. While headline figures trended downward, core inflation—which strips away volatile energy and fresh food items—climbed 0.19%. This core metric now sits at an annual rate of 4.12%, showing only marginal improvement from the 4.15% observed in late May.

Pressure remains visible in the services sector, where airfares, hotel rates, and tourism packages ticked upward as the summer holiday season begins. These costs are also feeling the residual impact of Mexico’s role as a co-host for the upcoming soccer World Cup. Despite these sector-specific gains, the Bank of Mexico is widely expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 6.5% during Thursday’s policy meeting. The central bank previously signaled its intent to hold this level steady for the foreseeable future following the May 7 reduction.

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