The latest PCE inflation data shows a 4.1% year-over-year increase, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current trajectory rather than pivot toward easing during the upcoming July FOMC meeting. While the dollar index retreated to 101.22, it remains near its 52-week peak, keeping Treasury yields elevated at 4.4% and limiting the upside potential for non-yielding assets.

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have transitioned from acute shock to managed risk. Despite a recent incident involving a Singapore-flagged vessel, increased tanker traffic and declining oil prices suggest the market has moved past the initial panic phase. Gold now functions primarily as an insurance hedge rather than a speculative play on supply chain collapse. Technically, gold bulls must break through the $4,045 resistance level to target $4,122, while silver remains focused on reclaiming the $58.77 to $61.55 range to sustain its current recovery trend.