The volatility follows attacks on two commercial vessels late last week, including the container ship Ever Lovely and the Panama-flagged tanker Kiku. These incidents triggered retaliatory U.S. military strikes, forcing shipowners to pause transits while reassessing regional safety. Although both nations signaled a temporary ceasefire ahead of planned talks, the market's previous reliance on a quick peace deal is beginning to fracture.

Analysts at ING, including Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, warn that the market remains dangerously complacent regarding the drawdown of global inventories to multi-decade lows. While traders have largely focused on the potential for a recovery in Persian Gulf oil flows, the actual timeline for such an increase appears increasingly uncertain. This disconnect between optimistic pricing and the reality of regional instability leaves the market vulnerable to sudden upside spikes should diplomatic efforts falter or supply bottlenecks intensify.