The proposed restriction follows a sharp decline in output, with exports plummeting to multi-year lows. Data from Vortexa indicates that shipments averaged just 480,000 barrels per day between June 1 and June 25, representing a 53% drop compared to the same period last year. These refinery outages, triggered by targeted attacks, have tightened global markets and pushed diesel margins in Northwest Europe well above $40 per barrel.

While Russia remains the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, a full embargo would further strain international supply chains. Although the European Union and the U.K. banned Russian oil imports following the invasion of Ukraine, countries like Brazil, Turkey, and several North African nations have served as primary buyers, capitalizing on discounted pricing. The potential move to restrict these remaining flows marks a critical escalation in the economic fallout of the conflict, as the Kremlin struggles to balance domestic energy needs against the loss of vital export revenue.