While daily crossings have slowed, the volume of crude currently on water has surged to 1.29 billion barrels, the highest level since hostilities began. This accumulation reflects a cautious market, as producers in Kuwait and Iraq attempt to sustain output at 70-75% of pre-war capacity. The logistical strain is compounded by Iran’s directive requiring vessels to navigate the northern channel, effectively reducing the waterway to a single-lane corridor for the duration of the 60-day ceasefire.

Energy markets are reacting to the instability beyond the Strait as well. In the United States, natural gas futures exceeded $3.3 per MMBtu, driven by extreme heat forecasts in the northeast. Meanwhile, corporate maneuvering continues: San Mateo Midstream acquired Cardinal Midstream Partners for $752 million to bolster Delaware Basin assets, and TotalEnergies and BP have secured stakes in the UAE’s Bab Gas Cap project. Amid these shifts, Iraq’s oil sector faces internal turmoil following the arrest of deputy oil minister Ali al-Bahadli during a sweeping anti-corruption investigation, further complicating the supply outlook for Middle Eastern producers.