The LME Index spent the first half of the year in a volatile state, oscillating between war-driven euphoria and dejection. Aluminum prices surged to over $3,780 a ton in June following missile strikes on smelters in the UAE and Bahrain, which wiped out 2 million tons of annualized output. However, as the market recalibrates toward a semblance of normality, that conflict-driven premium is rapidly dissolving, leaving Gulf-exposed metals to find their own footing.

Copper, which peaked at $14,000 a ton in June, now faces a different kind of pressure. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s June 30 review of the domestic refined copper market remains under wraps, leaving the industry in limbo over a proposed 15% tariff slated for January 2027. BNP Paribas metals strategist David Wilson noted that intense lobbying continues, suggesting the final policy outcome remains highly contested.

Other base metals are largely decoupling from the Gulf situation. Zinc climbed 14% on a global deficit, while nickel prices have been driven primarily by Indonesian mining quotas. Tin and lead continue to track their own distinct supply-demand fundamentals, unbothered by the regional instability. As the Strait of Hormuz remains a patchy, unpredictable corridor, the metals complex is returning to its traditional drivers, with copper’s trajectory held firmly in the hands of the Trump administration.