The gap between institutional forecasts has widened significantly. While both the IEA and BloombergNEF slashed their 2026 deficit estimates to 900,000 and 500,000 barrels per day respectively—down from a 2 million barrel per day shortfall predicted just a month prior—the US Energy Information Administration remains far more pessimistic. The EIA anticipates that regional oil production will not return to pre-war levels until early 2027, projecting a sharp inventory drawdown of 7.6 million barrels per day throughout the third quarter of 2026.

This volatility is reflected in broader market sentiment. A monthly Reuters poll shows the projected average price for Brent crude falling to 84.5 dollars per barrel, a drop of 6 dollars from May. This reactive shift underscores a fundamental lack of consensus on the duration of regional instability. While most forecasters align on the expectation of a supply glut by 2027, the short-term discrepancies reveal a market struggling to price in the unpredictable nature of Hormuz shipping traffic and the potential for further escalations.