The report, titled "Note on the probability of a banking crisis in Russia in 2026," details how Moscow has increasingly forced financial institutions to subsidize defense contractors and state-backed projects. While the Kremlin has maintained a facade of economic growth, the intelligence document argues that this reliance masks deep-seated vulnerabilities. Authors of the report estimate that 10% of corporate loans are now considered doubtful, while some major lenders have reported retail non-performing loan ratios reaching 15% in 2025.

Financial strain is further evidenced by a sharp rise in personal insolvency, with over 500,000 Russians declaring bankruptcy in 2025—a one-third increase from the previous year. Despite these findings, the Russian central bank maintains that the sector remains stable. Deputy Governor Filipp Gabunia recently asserted that capital cushions are at a three-year high. Independent experts remain divided; some analysts argue that high defense spending continues to sustain employment and wages, effectively insulating the economy from immediate collapse despite the tightening web of international sanctions.