Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus of FGE NexantECA, argues that expectations of a significant oil glut in 2027 are premature. While roughly 75% of pre-conflict oil flows are expected to return through the Strait of Hormuz by year-end, the underlying geopolitical friction between Washington and Tehran continues to pose a risk to supply stability. Fesharaki dismissed the possibility of a definitive peace deal, characterizing the current situation as the start of a longer period of volatility.

Contrasting this view, major financial institutions like Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have adjusted their outlooks downward, anticipating that the reopening of the Strait will trigger a price collapse. Citigroup analysts suggest Brent Crude could fall to $60 per barrel, banking on a successful transition from the current memorandum of understanding to a comprehensive agreement. Despite this, China—Iran's primary customer—remains cautious, with a lack of aggressive purchasing currently keeping global markets in a state of uncertainty.