The decline represents a 230,000 b/d drop from May, fueled primarily by a 32% collapse in gasoil exports to 490,000 b/d. Jet fuel shipments also halved, falling to 30,000 b/d. With refinery crude runs now dipping below 3.8 million b/d—a year-over-year decline of 1.6 million b/d—the impact of the conflict has moved deep into Russian territory. Recent strikes reached the 450,000 b/d Omsk refinery, located 2,700 kilometers from the Ukrainian frontline.

In response to internal supply crises, Moscow has implemented a series of export bans, including a total halt on diesel shipments for the remainder of July. The IEA projects that these disruptions will force Russian crude production to slide further to 8.9 million b/d this year and 8.8 million b/d by 2027. Global markets remain vulnerable as well; with OECD gasoline stocks at their lowest levels since 2023, the combination of summer demand, regional heatwaves, and forced Russian imports from the U.S. West Coast keeps volatility high.