The National Bureau of Statistics reported that June’s throughput represents the lowest level since March 2020. Average refinery run rates slipped below 60% as operators shuttered units for maintenance to mitigate losses driven by expensive feedstock. This industrial pullback is directly tied to a broader import slump; China’s crude intake crashed to 7.12 million barrels per day in June, the lowest monthly volume since 2016.

According to data from Oilchem, run rates dropped to 57.72% in June, a decline of 3.28 percentage points from May. Analysts at GL Consulting expect the downward trend to persist through July as supply constraints in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz keep oil prices elevated. With domestic consumption failing to rebound, refiners are prioritizing capacity idling over production to stabilize margins.